The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has “ruled out” the possibility of an El Nino in the coming southwest monsoon sea-son this year.

An El Nino, characterised by a warming of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, is frequently associated with reduced monsoon rainfall in India.

“Based on the climate forecasts, including international ones, we can rule out El Nino for the monsoon. We will most likely see neutral El Nino condi-tions,” M. Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, said in a briefing on Monday.
In 2023, which was an El Nino year, the monsoon season saw a 6% deficit. Last year witnessed an 8% surplus as “neutral conditions” prevailed.

An El Nino implies a temperature rise between 0.5 degree Celsius to 1 degree Celsius in the Central Pacific. “Neutral” suggests no such rise. However there have been instances when neutral conditions have led to below-normal rain in India. The IMD gives its first forecast on monsoon rainfall in April.

‘Wait for April forecast’

“We will have to wait for the April forecast to get a sense of the monsoon rainfall this year,” said Mr. Mohapatra, adding, “Regional factors and conditions in oceans surrounding India [Indian Ocean particularly] also have to be considered during forecasts.”

Before the monsoon kicks in, however, India will be reeling under “above normal” temperatures during the summer months.

From April to June, India on average reports four to seven heatwave days, defined as temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius or greater-than-five-degrees rise from what’s normal in a region.

‘Parts of eastern India could potentially see 10 heatwave days this year,” said Mr. Mohapatra.

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